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четверг, 3 апреля 2008 г.

The markets didn't react well to Google advertising figures

 


 

Google’s stock took a big hit today—still down 4 percent to $465—on comScore data suggesting that the click-through rate on its paid search ads is decelerating. As the chart above from Bear Stearns shows, the year-over-year growth of paid clicks on Google in the U.S. went from 37 percent in October to 0.3 percent in January. Since these are year-over-year numbers, seasonality is accounted for (there are more clicks in the months leading up to Christmas than after, but this January should not be flat with last January).


 



 

One explanation Wall Street analysts are putting out there today is that this could be an indicator that Google is not immune to the general economic slowdown. While a recession may be coming, that explanation is not convincing. Yahoo would have felt it as well, yet comScore reported a 15 percent year-over-year growth in paid clicks for Yahoo in January (to 242 million, compared to Google’s 532 million). Also, as Bill Tancer at Hitwise points out, traffic from Google to shopping sites is still above last year’s levels (evidence that paid clicks may actually be improving).


 


 



 


 


A more likely explanation is that Google is tightening the reins on clicks to combat click fraud and generate better clicks in general. Also the correlation between comScore’s click-through estimates and Google’s revenues has been highly inconsistent in the past. It definitely isn’t a one-to-one correlation. For instance, in the fourth quarter of 2007, comScore showed a 25 percent year-over-year paid click-through growth rate, yet Google’s actual U.S. revenues grew 46 percent. In the third quarter of last year, comScore showed a 48 percent growth rate for paid clicks, compared to an actual 58 percent growth in revenues. Sequential quarter-over-quarter comparisons are even more all over the map, according to calculations by JPMorgan.


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среда, 2 апреля 2008 г.

Google heads under the sea with cable investment

 



 


Google has announced that it has joined a consortium to build a new trans-Pacific cable between Japan and California.


The Unity consortium is a joint effort by Bharti Airtel, Global Transit, Google, KDDI Corporation, Pacnet and SingTel and will initially increase Trans–Pacific lit cable capacity by about 20 percent, with the potential to add up to 7.68 Terabits per second.


Google’s Manager of Network Acquisitions, Francois Sterin, explains the deal:


“[Google’s] participation in building Unity ultimately helps provide our users with faster and more reliable connectivity.


If you’re wondering whether [Google is] going into the undersea cable business, the answer is no. We’re not competing with telecom providers, but the volume of data we need to move around the world has grown to the point where in some cases we’ve exceeded the ability traditional players can offer. Our partnership with these companies is just another step in ensuring that we’re delivering the best possible experience to people around the world.”


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понедельник, 3 марта 2008 г.

The markets didn't react well to Google advertising figures

 


 

Google’s stock took a big hit today—still down 4 percent to $465—on comScore data suggesting that the click-through rate on its paid search ads is decelerating. As the chart above from Bear Stearns shows, the year-over-year growth of paid clicks on Google in the U.S. went from 37 percent in October to 0.3 percent in January. Since these are year-over-year numbers, seasonality is accounted for (there are more clicks in the months leading up to Christmas than after, but this January should not be flat with last January).


 



 

One explanation Wall Street analysts are putting out there today is that this could be an indicator that Google is not immune to the general economic slowdown. While a recession may be coming, that explanation is not convincing. Yahoo would have felt it as well, yet comScore reported a 15 percent year-over-year growth in paid clicks for Yahoo in January (to 242 million, compared to Google’s 532 million). Also, as Bill Tancer at Hitwise points out, traffic from Google to shopping sites is still above last year’s levels (evidence that paid clicks may actually be improving).


 


 



 


 


A more likely explanation is that Google is tightening the reins on clicks to combat click fraud and generate better clicks in general. Also the correlation between comScore’s click-through estimates and Google’s revenues has been highly inconsistent in the past. It definitely isn’t a one-to-one correlation. For instance, in the fourth quarter of 2007, comScore showed a 25 percent year-over-year paid click-through growth rate, yet Google’s actual U.S. revenues grew 46 percent. In the third quarter of last year, comScore showed a 48 percent growth rate for paid clicks, compared to an actual 58 percent growth in revenues. Sequential quarter-over-quarter comparisons are even more all over the map, according to calculations by JPMorgan.


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воскресенье, 2 марта 2008 г.

Google heads under the sea with cable investment

 



 


Google has announced that it has joined a consortium to build a new trans-Pacific cable between Japan and California.


The Unity consortium is a joint effort by Bharti Airtel, Global Transit, Google, KDDI Corporation, Pacnet and SingTel and will initially increase Trans–Pacific lit cable capacity by about 20 percent, with the potential to add up to 7.68 Terabits per second.


Google’s Manager of Network Acquisitions, Francois Sterin, explains the deal:


“[Google’s] participation in building Unity ultimately helps provide our users with faster and more reliable connectivity.


If you’re wondering whether [Google is] going into the undersea cable business, the answer is no. We’re not competing with telecom providers, but the volume of data we need to move around the world has grown to the point where in some cases we’ve exceeded the ability traditional players can offer. Our partnership with these companies is just another step in ensuring that we’re delivering the best possible experience to people around the world.”


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пятница, 29 февраля 2008 г.

How Google got its logo

 



 


Wired has a very neat interview with Ruth Kedar, the graphic designer who developed the now-famous Google logo.


Here’s her story (with a neat gallery of prototype logos!):


In just a few short years, Google’s logo has become as recognizable as Nike’s swoosh and NBC’s peacock. Ruth Kedar, the graphic designer who developed the now-famous logo, shows the iterations that led to the instantly recognizable primary colors and Catull typeface that define the Google brand. Kedar met Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page through a mutual friend nine years ago at Stanford University, where she was an assistant professor. Page and Brin, who were having trouble coming up with a logo for their soon-to-launch search engine, asked Kedar to come up with some prototypes. "I had no idea at the time that Google would become as ubiquitous as it is today, or that their success would be of such magnitude," Kedar says.



Link


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вторник, 26 февраля 2008 г.

Google may buy balloon company..

 



 


Google is considering working with, or buying Space Data Corp, a company that provides wireless services via Balloon, according to the Wall Street Journal.


Space Data Corp targets areas without existing internet access, such as rural areas and highways, providing wireless and internet services to truckers and rural folk. The company currently launches 20 balloons a day, and a single balloon can service an area equivalent to 40 cell phone towers.


The balloons cost $50, however the transceivers attached to them cost $1500, but parachute back to the earth once the balloon is no longer in service.


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четверг, 14 февраля 2008 г.

Google’s ad market share slipped in the Fourth Quarter

 



 


A forthcoming report by IDC estimates that online advertising in the U.S. reached $25.5 billion in 2007, and $7.3 billion in the fourth quarter.


It also puts Google’s market share of Internet advertising in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2007 at 23.7 percent, down half a percentage point from the third quarter. That is Google’s first slip in market share in two years.


While Google’s overall U.S. sales (net of traffic acquisition costs that goes to pay partner sites) still went up 40 percent last quarter, it was not enough to keep its market share position compared to the overall industry.


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пятница, 8 февраля 2008 г.

Google: Falling like a rock

 


 

Google has thus far today dropped another 5% of its stock price to drop below the $500 mark for the first time since last August. Remember, up until the final days in December the stock was still over $700 a share, and it was near the $750 a share level (with everyone talking $1000) back in November.


So what is it that's caused such a rapid swing? Well it's seemingly been 3 main factors:


1) the bad economy
2) missed earnings for the first time
3) Microsoft trying to buy Yahoo


Yet even with those three major developments, it seems a bit odd that Google would fall so far so quickly.


Yes, Google missed Wall Street projections of price per share - by one penny. Net revenue was off - of the projections - $60 million dollars, but still up. And when you consider the revenue was $3.39 billion dollar, $60 million doesn't seem like an unreasonable amount to be off in a slowing economy that analysts no doubt didn't anticipate to slow as much as it did. Net income rose, revenue rose, revenue from AdSense rose - and they all rose substantially. Yet still everyone is freaking out.


And so, in some ways we have a case of perception being reality. Google is really not much different today then they were in November when they were at $750. Even if a Microsoft purchase of Yahoo were to go through, Google would still have the absolute dominant position in both search and online advertising - where the money comes from.


It's a lot like the situation with Apple right now - bad...for short-term investors.


With online advertising still expected to grow despite a worsening economy, unless Google really messes something up in the next year, this rapid descent in stock price may just mean one thing for a lot of people: buy.


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Can Google still claim to be David To Microsoft’s Goliath?

 


 

Google’s Senior VP of Corporate Development and Chief Legal Officer, David Drummond, published a short post on the company’s official blog:


The openness of the Internet is what made Google -- and Yahoo! -- possible. A good idea that users find useful spreads quickly. Businesses can be created around the idea. Users benefit from constant innovation. It's what makes the Internet such an exciting place.


So Microsoft's hostile bid for Yahoo! raises troubling questions. This is about more than simply a financial transaction, one company taking over another. It's about preserving the underlying principles of the Internet: openness and innovation.


Could Microsoft now attempt to exert the same sort of inappropriate and illegal influence over the Internet that it did with the PC? While the Internet rewards competitive innovation, Microsoft has frequently sought to establish proprietary monopolies -- and then leverage its dominance into new, adjacent markets.


Could the acquisition of Yahoo! allow Microsoft -- despite its legacy of serious legal and regulatory offenses -- to extend unfair practices from browsers and operating systems to the Internet? In addition, Microsoft plus Yahoo! equals an overwhelming share of instant messaging and web email accounts. And between them, the two companies operate the two most heavily trafficked portals on the Internet. Could a combination of the two take advantage of a PC software monopoly to unfairly limit the ability of consumers to freely access competitors' email, IM, and web-based services? Policymakers around the world need to ask these questions -- and consumers deserve satisfying answers.


This hostile bid was announced on Friday, so there is plenty of time for these questions to be thoroughly addressed. We take Internet openness, choice and innovation seriously. They are the core of our culture. We believe that the interests of Internet users come first -- and should come first -- as the merits of this proposed acquisition are examined and alternatives explored.


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среда, 6 февраля 2008 г.

Microsoft + Yahoo = Competition for Google

 



 


Microsoft has made an unsolicited $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo. The bid, which would consist of cash and Microsoft stock, values Yahoo shares at $31 a share, a 62% premium on Thursdays closing price.


The letter from Microsoft to the Yahoo board reads as follows:


January 31, 2008


Board of Directors
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089
Attention: Roy Bostock, Chairman
Attention: Jerry Yang, Chief Executive Officer


Dear Members of the Board:


I am writing on behalf of the Board of Directors of Microsoft to make a proposal for a business combination of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Under our proposal, Microsoft would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Yahoo! common stock for per share consideration of $31 based on Microsoft’s closing share price on January 31, 2008, payable in the form of $31 in cash or 0.9509 of a share of Microsoft common stock. Microsoft would provide each Yahoo! shareholder with the ability to choose whether to receive the consideration in cash or Microsoft common stock, subject to pro-ration so that in the aggregate one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be exchanged for shares of Microsoft common stock and one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be converted into the right to receive cash. Our proposal is not subject to any financing condition.


Our proposal represents a 62% premium above the closing price of Yahoo! common stock of $19.18 on January 31, 2008. The implied premium for the operating assets of the company clearly is considerably greater when adjusted for the minority, non-controlled assets and cash. By whatever financial measure you use - EBITDA, free cash flow, operating cash flow, net income, or analyst target prices - this proposal represents a compelling value realization event for your shareholders.


We believe that Microsoft common stock represents a very attractive investment opportunity for Yahoo!’s shareholders. Microsoft has generated revenue growth of 15%, earnings growth of 26%, and a return on equity of 35% on average for the last three years. Microsoft’s share price has generated shareholder returns of 8% during the last one year period and 28% during the last three year period, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. It is our view that Microsoft has significant potential upside given the continued solid growth in our core businesses, the recent launch of Windows Vista, and other strategic initiatives.


Microsoft’s consistent belief has been that the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! clearly represents the best way to deliver maximum value to our respective shareholders, as well as create a more efficient and competitive company that would provide greater value and service to our customers. In late 2006 and early 2007, we jointly explored a broad range of ways in which our two companies might work together. These discussions were based on a vision that the online businesses of Microsoft and Yahoo! should be aligned in some way to create a more effective competitor in the online marketplace. We discussed a number of alternatives ranging from commercial partnerships to a merger proposal, which you rejected. While a commercial partnership may have made sense at one time, Microsoft believes that the only alternative now is the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! that we are proposing.


In February 2007, I received a letter from your Chairman indicating the view of the Yahoo! Board that “now is not the right time from the perspective of our shareholders to enter into discussions regarding an acquisition transaction.” According to that letter, the principal reason for this view was the Yahoo! Board’s confidence in the “potential upside” if management successfully executed on a reformulated strategy based on certain operational initiatives, such as Project Panama, and a significant organizational realignment. A year has gone by, and the competitive situation has not improved.


While online advertising growth continues, there are significant benefits of scale in advertising platform economics, in capital costs for search index build-out, and in research and development, making this a time of industry consolidation and convergence. Today, the market is increasingly dominated by one player who is consolidating its dominance through acquisition. Together, Microsoft and Yahoo! can offer a credible alternative for consumers, advertisers, and publishers. Synergies of this combination fall into four areas:


Scale economics: This combination enables synergies related to scale economics of the advertising platform where today there is only one competitor at scale. This includes synergies across both search and non-search related advertising that will strengthen the value proposition to both advertisers and publishers. Additionally, the combination allows us to consolidate capital spending.


Expanded R&D capacity: The combined talent of our engineering resources can be focused on R&D priorities such as a single search index and single advertising platform. Together we can unleash new levels of innovation, delivering enhanced user experiences, breakthroughs in search, and new advertising platform capabilities. Many of these breakthroughs are a function of an engineering scale that today neither of our companies has on its own.


Operational efficiencies: Eliminating redundant infrastructure and duplicative operating costs will improve the financial performance of the combined entity.


Emerging user experiences: Our combined ability to focus engineering resources that drive innovation in emerging scenarios such as video, mobile services, online commerce, social media, and social platforms is greatly enhanced.


We would value the opportunity to further discuss with you how to optimize the integration of our respective businesses to create a leading global technology company with exceptional display and search advertising capabilities. You should also be aware that we intend to offer significant retention packages to your engineers, key leaders and employees across all disciplines.


We have dedicated considerable time and resources to an analysis of a potential transaction and are confident that the combination will receive all necessary regulatory approvals. We look forward to discussing this with you, and both our internal legal team and outside counsel are available to meet with your counsel at their earliest convenience.


Our proposal is subject to the negotiation of a definitive merger agreement and our having the opportunity to conduct certain limited and confirmatory due diligence. In addition, because a portion of the aggregate merger consideration would consist of Microsoft common stock, we would provide Yahoo! the opportunity to conduct appropriate limited due diligence with respect to Microsoft. We are prepared to deliver a draft merger agreement to you and begin discussions immediately.


In light of the significance of this proposal to your shareholders and ours, as well as the potential for selective disclosures, our intention is to publicly release the text of this letter tomorrow morning.


Due to the importance of these discussions and the value represented by our proposal, we expect the Yahoo! Board to engage in a full review of our proposal. My leadership team and I would be happy to make ourselves available to meet with you and your Board at your earliest convenience. Depending on the nature of your response, Microsoft reserves the right to pursue all necessary steps to ensure that Yahoo!’s shareholders are provided with the opportunity to realize the value inherent in our proposal.


We believe this proposal represents a unique opportunity to create significant value for Yahoo!’s shareholders and employees, and the combined company will be better positioned to provide an enhanced value proposition to users and advertisers. We hope that you and your Board share our enthusiasm, and we look forward to a prompt and favorable reply.


Sincerely yours,


/s/ Steven A. Ballmer


Steven A. Ballmer


Chief Executive Officer


Microsoft Corporation


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воскресенье, 27 января 2008 г.

Google Health is coming soon...

 



 


Spotted by Google Blogscoped is a login page for Google Health, Google’s entry into the online health records space. At the time of writing the site isn’t allowing logins, but it does include this text:


With Google Health, you can:
* Build online health profiles that belong to you
* Download medical records from doctors and pharmacies
* Get personalized health guidance and relevant news
* Find qualified doctors and connect to time-saving services
* Share selected information with family or caregivers



The other thing to note is the logo (we’ve included it in this post), it would appear that Google Health is going straight to Beta and not through Google Labs.


Google Health has been hampered by chronic fatigue syndrome in terms of its development, with the site due  to launch originally in May 2006. Microsoft even beat Google in the space, having launched its own online health product in October 2007.


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среда, 23 января 2008 г.

In Google we no longer trust



A new study from the University of Southern California’s Center for the Digital Future has found that a growing number of people no longer believe that search results are reliable and accurate.


The survey found that only 51% of people trust information provided by search engines, down from 62% in 2006. Google, as the most popular search engine in the United States, isn’t trusted by nearly half (49%) of the people who use it, an interesting result.


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вторник, 22 января 2008 г.

Google expands lead in online video market share

 


 

Americans viewed nearly 9.5 billion online videos in November, with Google Sites once again ranking as the top U.S. video property with 3 billion videos viewed (31.3 percent share of all videos viewed), 2.9 billion of which occurred at YouTube.com (30.6 percent).


Fox Interactive Media ranked second with 419 million videos viewed (4.4 percent), followed by Yahoo! Sites with 328 million (3.5 percent) and Viacom Digital with 304 million (2.6 percent).


In total, 138 million Americans – approximately three in four U.S Internet users – viewed online video in November. Google Sites also captured the largest online video audience with 76.2 million unique viewers, followed by Fox Interactive Media with 46.3 million and Yahoo! Sites with 37.3 million.


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воскресенье, 20 января 2008 г.

Google checkout doubles adoption, but PayPal sees largest increase at 217%

 


 

A study completed by Brulant, one of the nation's leading interactive marketing firms, shows that 30% of 100 leading online retailers currently offer alternative payment methods (APM) — a 25% increase since February 2007.


Of those, Bill Me Later saw the highest adoption at 21%, with PayPal closely behind at 19% and Google Checkout at 10%, double the adoption it saw in February. 5% of the surveyed companies now offer all three options.


One of the most surprising findings in our most recent evaluation is the increase in retailers offering all three alternative payment methods.


As recently as February of '07, none of the retailers surveyed offered all three methods. Today there is 5% adoption of all three, and at a variety of retailers from Toys"R"Us to PetSmart and Rite Aid. This reinforces the 'customer is king' mentality, as retailers begin to offer a multitude of choices for checkout.


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пятница, 18 января 2008 г.

What happens when a public company relies on Google Adsense?

 



 


If you are a public company and rely on Google for a lot of your revenue, the last thing you want to hear is that your Adsense account has been “disabled.”


But that is exactly what happened to Israel-based IncrediMail, which saw its stock drop about over 40% when it announced that its advertising deal with Google had been terminated. The company was worth about $45 million on Nasdaq. The stock is now worth one third.


No reason has been given as to why Google dropped them, but it is likely to be fraud.
If Google dropped them for fraud or other bad behavior, the other networks (namely Yahoo and Microsoft) likely won’t touch them, either.


The moral of the story is if you rely on Google for your income, make sure you keep Google happy.


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суббота, 12 января 2008 г.

Google is processing 20,000 terabytes of data a day

 


A recent white paper by some Google engineers puts some numbers around the massive amount of computation that Google does every day to index the Web, process search results, and serve up ads, among other things. As oflast September, Google was processing 20,000 terabytes of data (20 petabytes) a day. This large-scale computing capability is a big part of Google’s competitive advantage over Yahoo, Microsoft, and everyone else.


Niall Kennedy reports the breakdown of how Google’s large-scale computing has grown, and estimates that hardware cost for each large-scale computing job (known as MapReduce) is about $1 million. The number of such jobs grew nearly an order of magnitude (10X) between 2004 and 2006, and then another order of magnitude a year and half later. See the chart below:


 



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пятница, 11 января 2008 г.

Google cancels Adsense referral program

 



 


Google has cancelled its Adsense referral program for users outside of North America, Latin America and Japan.


Users who are still eligible to participate in the program will found their bonuses greatly reduced. Here’s the official word from Inside AdSense:

“About a year ago, as an experiment, we changed the pricing structure for AdSense referrals so that when a user you referred to the program earned $5 within 180 days of sign-up, you would also earn $5. When that publisher earned $100 within 180 days and removed all payment holds, you’d receive $250. We have decided to conclude this experiment and return to the original pricing structure. As a result, we’ll soon no longer be offering the $5 bonus or $2000 bonus, and the payout for referring a user who generates $100 with AdSense in the first 180 days will return to $100.”


The reason for all this is obviously poor performance of the AdSense referral program.


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суббота, 5 января 2008 г.

Google may have worked out how to read text in images and video

 



 


A patent application lodged by Google in July 2007 but recently made public seeks to patent a method where by computers can read and understand text in images and video.


A full copy of the patent application “Recognizing Text In Images” can be viewed here.


Some choice lines from the patent:


“Digital images can include a wide variety of content…For example, digital images can illustrate landscapes, people, urban scenes, and other objects. Digital images often include text. Digital images can be captured, for example, using cameras or digital video recorders. Image text (i.e., text in an image) typically includes text of varying size, orientation, and typeface. Text in a digital image derived, for example, from an urban scene (e.g., a city street scene) often provides information about the displayed scene or location. A typical street scene includes, for example, text as part of street signs, building names, address numbers, and window signs.”



If Google has found a way to index text in static images and video this is a great leap forward in the progression of search technology.


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четверг, 3 января 2008 г.

Google vs Yahoo

 


 


 

The screengrabs above show how the homepages of Yahoo and Google have changed over the last ten years.


While Yahoo has added more and more links, images and text to its frontpage, Google has opted to leave the page simple and free of everything except the Google search box and links to its services.


Given that the frontpage of any website commands the highest revenue, Google has resisted the temptation to clutter the page with advertsising and other distractions. A strategy that has seen Google grow to a $250 billion business.


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суббота, 22 декабря 2007 г.

Google talk now translates your chats

 



 


Google relaease translation bots. For those not familiar with bots, a (ro)bot is a piece of software that acts as a chat contact and provides some fun or useful functionality.


If you want to try it, just add en2zh@bot.talk.google.com as a friend in Google Talk and send it a message to translate from English to Chinese. You can use it as an interpreter in your group chat, or as a pocket translator in your Google Talk client for BlackBerry.


For more languages, just add any of the 29 other translation bots. They're named using two-letter language abbreviations as "[from language]2[to language]@bot.talk.google.com", and the supported language pairs are: ar2en, bg2en, de2en, de2fr, el2en, en2ar, en2de, en2el, en2es, en2fr, en2it, en2ja, en2ko, en2nl, en2ru, en2zh, es2en, fi2en, fr2de, fr2en, hi2en, hr2en, it2en, ja2en, ko2en, nl2en, ru2en, uk2en, ur2en, zh2en. So, for French to German translation, talk to fr2de@bot.talk.google.com.


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